E-ISSN 2683-5961 | ISSN 2354-1814
 

Review Article
Online Published: 23 Nov 2018
 


EVALUATING ARIMA MODELS FORECAST ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN NIGERIA USING SYMMETRIC LOSS FUNCTIONS

Lawal, H., Ahmed, A., Tasi'u, M..


Abstract
This study sought to evaluate the prediction ability of ARIMA models on the current account deficit in Nigeria using symmetric loss functions like Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Absolute Error (RMAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Theil inequality Coefficient. The results of the unit root tests show that the data is stationary at lag 3 after taking the first difference of the series. Of two possible models, ARIMA (2,1,2) model is found to be the best model because it has lower AIC and BIC. The accuracy of volatility forecast of the two models were evaluated using the above symmetric loss functions and the results show that ARIMA (2,1,2) produces the most accurate forecast as it has least variance and maximum covariance proportions

Key words: ARIMA, Current Account Deficits,Symmetry Lost Functions


 
ARTICLE TOOLS
Abstract
PDF Fulltext
How to cite this articleHow to cite this article
Citation Tools
Related Records
 Articles by Lawal
Articles by H.
Articles by Ahmed
Articles by A.
Articles by Tasi'u
Articles by M.
on Google
on Google Scholar

How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Lawal, H. , Ahmed , A. , Tasiu , M. . EVALUATING ARIMA MODELS FORECAST ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN NIGERIA USING SYMMETRIC LOSS FUNCTIONS. Equijost. 2016; 4(1): 86-92.


Web Style

Lawal, H. , Ahmed , A. , Tasiu , M. . EVALUATING ARIMA MODELS FORECAST ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN NIGERIA USING SYMMETRIC LOSS FUNCTIONS. https://www.equijost.com/?mno=302643596 [Access: June 24, 2026].


AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Lawal, H. , Ahmed , A. , Tasiu , M. . EVALUATING ARIMA MODELS FORECAST ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN NIGERIA USING SYMMETRIC LOSS FUNCTIONS. Equijost. 2016; 4(1): 86-92.



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Lawal, H. , Ahmed , A. , Tasiu , M. . EVALUATING ARIMA MODELS FORECAST ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN NIGERIA USING SYMMETRIC LOSS FUNCTIONS. Equijost. (2016), [cited June 24, 2026]; 4(1): 86-92.



Harvard Style

Lawal, H., ., Ahmed, ., A., ., Tasiu, . & M., . (2016) EVALUATING ARIMA MODELS FORECAST ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN NIGERIA USING SYMMETRIC LOSS FUNCTIONS. Equijost, 4 (1), 86-92.



Turabian Style

Lawal, H., Ahmed, A., Tasiu, and M.. 2016. EVALUATING ARIMA MODELS FORECAST ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN NIGERIA USING SYMMETRIC LOSS FUNCTIONS. Equity Journal of Science and Technology, 4 (1), 86-92.



Chicago Style

Lawal, H., Ahmed, A., Tasiu, and M.. "EVALUATING ARIMA MODELS FORECAST ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN NIGERIA USING SYMMETRIC LOSS FUNCTIONS." Equity Journal of Science and Technology 4 (2016), 86-92.



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Lawal, H., Ahmed, A., Tasiu, and M.. "EVALUATING ARIMA MODELS FORECAST ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN NIGERIA USING SYMMETRIC LOSS FUNCTIONS." Equity Journal of Science and Technology 4.1 (2016), 86-92. Print.



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Lawal, H., ., Ahmed, ., A., ., Tasiu, . & M., . (2016) EVALUATING ARIMA MODELS FORECAST ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN NIGERIA USING SYMMETRIC LOSS FUNCTIONS. Equity Journal of Science and Technology, 4 (1), 86-92.





Most Viewed Articles
Most Accessed Articles

  • RESPONSE OF COWPEA VARIETIES TO BASAL STEM ROT (Sclerotium Rolfsii) DISEASE IN SOUTHERN GUINEA SAVANNA, NIGERIA
    M. U. Tanimu, I. U. Mohammed, A. Muhammad and N.M. Kwaifa
    Equijost. 2018; 5(1): 1-8
    » Abstract

  • PREDICTION OF CUSTOMER ACCESSIBILITY OF ELECTRONIC BANKING LOGISTIC REGRESSION IN NIGERIA
    Suleiman, S. and Usman, U.
    Equijost. 2016; 4(1): 93-97
    » Abstract

  • PATTERN AND DETERMINANTS OF CONSUMERS DEMAND FOR CANNED FOOD IN ILORIN METROPOLIS OF KWARA STATE, NIGERIA
    Babatunde, R.O.; Amolegbe, K.B.; Akingbohungbe, I.T.
    Equijost. 2018; 5(1): 23-34
    » Abstract

  • EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT HORMONES ON THE GROWTH PERFORMANCE OF Clarias gariepinus
    ADESHINA, I., ADEWALE, Y. A. and DALHATU, B. J.
    Equijost. 2016; 4(1): 10-13
    » Abstract

  • EFFECT OF LATE PLANTING ON INCIDENCE AND SEVERITY OF STENOCARPELLA EAR ROT OF MAIZE IN LAFIA, NASARAWA STATE, NIGERIA
    Garba Y. and Ogara I. M.
    Equijost. 2016; 4(1): 57-60
    » Abstract

  • Most Downloaded
    Top Downloaded Articles

  • ROLE OF FADAMA III PROGRAMME IN EMPOWERING THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE SOKOTO STATE PARTICIPATING WOMEN THROUGH CROP PRODUCTIVE ASSETS
    Ango, A. K.; Maikasuwa, M. A.; Sidi, M. H.
    Equijost. 2018; 5(1): 14-22
    » Abstract

  • Low-cost remote-controlled whiteboard cleaning system
    Adekunle Taofeek Oyelami, Ayomide Ogunsemi, Olusola Akintunlaji
    Equijost. 2024; 11(2): 16-19
    » Abstract » doi: 10.4314/equijost.v11i2.3

  • Free convective flow of viscoelastic fluid through a vertical stretching sheet with power law heat flux
    Ahmad B. Jafar, Musabu Musa
    Equijost. 2021; 8(2): 55-61
    » Abstract » doi: https//dx.doi.org/10.4314/equijost.v8i2.10

  • Bacteria Contamination of Market Vended Ponmo (Processed Cow Hide) in Birnin Kebbi, Kebbi State
    Jibrin Naka Keta, Mohammed Naka Keta, Mubarak Aminu Aburga, Grace Joseph Gudu
    Equijost. 2020; 7(1): 41-45
    » Abstract

  • ELECTROMAGNETIC CHARACTERIZATION AND FIELD DISTRIBUTION OF CO0.5ZN0.5FE2O4 USING PATCH MICROSTRIP ANTENNA AND FINITE ELEMENT METHODS
    Abubakar Yakubu, Zulkifli Abbas, Dago M Mohammad
    Equijost. 2018; 5(1): 123-131
    » Abstract