E-ISSN 2683-5961 | ISSN 2354-1814
 

Research Article 


Application of ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Daily Cumulative confirmed Covid-19 Prediction in Nigeria

Shamsuddeen Suleiman, Muhammad Sani.

Abstract
Coronavirus commonly referred to as COVID-19 is a disease discovered in China towards the end of December 2019. This novel and highly infectious virus spreads rapidly across the globe. In Nigeria, cumulative Covid-19 cases reached 25,694 out of which 9746 cases were cured, and 590 cases lost their lives as of June 2020. This research was aimed at comparing the prediction ability of ARIMA and ANN models. We subject the aggregate COVID-19 reported cases in Nigeria to Box-Jenkins time series, and Backpropagation gradient-based Artificial Neural Network Approaches for the prediction purpose. The data obtained from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) was used. The data were identified to follow ARIMA (1, 2, 1) and were best trained by Bayesian Regularization Artificial Neural Network algorithm. The prediction performance of the two models were compared using RMSE, MAE and MAPE. The empirical results obtained show that the Artificial Neural Network model gives better predictions and forecasts over the ARIMA model.

Key words: COVID-19, Box-Jenkins, ARIMA, ANN, Backpropagation


 
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Pubmed Style

Suleiman S, Sani M. Application of ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Daily Cumulative confirmed Covid-19 Prediction in Nigeria.


Web Style

Suleiman S, Sani M. Application of ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Daily Cumulative confirmed Covid-19 Prediction in Nigeria. http://www.equijost.com/?mno=100633 [Access: July 04, 2021].


AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Suleiman S, Sani M. Application of ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Daily Cumulative confirmed Covid-19 Prediction in Nigeria.



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Suleiman S, Sani M. Application of ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Daily Cumulative confirmed Covid-19 Prediction in Nigeria.



Harvard Style

Suleiman, S. & Sani, . M. (0) Application of ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Daily Cumulative confirmed Covid-19 Prediction in Nigeria.



Turabian Style

Suleiman, Shamsuddeen, and Muhammad Sani. 0. Application of ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Daily Cumulative confirmed Covid-19 Prediction in Nigeria.



Chicago Style

Suleiman, Shamsuddeen, and Muhammad Sani. "Application of ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Daily Cumulative confirmed Covid-19 Prediction in Nigeria."



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Suleiman, Shamsuddeen, and Muhammad Sani. "Application of ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Daily Cumulative confirmed Covid-19 Prediction in Nigeria."



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Suleiman, S. & Sani, . M. (0) Application of ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Daily Cumulative confirmed Covid-19 Prediction in Nigeria.





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